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Silver at four-month high amid QE3 hopes
Silver prices touched their highest level in more than four months on Monday as the prospect of a fresh bout of quantitative easing from the US Federal Reserve rekindled interest in the precious metal.
Investors have largely shunned silver this year after being burnt by a year of wild price swings that saw it touch a 30-year high in April 2011 before plunging nearly 35 per cent in a fortnight.
But silver, whose primary use is industrial despite a recent surge in investor demand, has jumped 15.8 per cent in price in the past three weeks and on Monday peaked at $32.20 a troy ounce.
The gains have outpaced those of gold,
which has risen just 5.2 per cent over the same period.
The “mint ratio” between the two precious metals, a favorite trade of hedge funds and other investors, has moved 9 per cent in silver’s favour since mid-August – the first time silver has outperformed Read more…
Quantitative Easing Rounds 1 and 2 Hurt the Economy … Bernanke Proposes Round 3
georgewashington2.blogspot.com
Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke is hinting at a third round of quantitative easing.
But Dallas Federal Reserve Bank president Richard Fisher said today:
I firmly believe that the Federal Reserve has already pressed the limits of monetary policy. So-called QE2, to my way of thinking, was of doubtful efficacy, which is why I did not support it to begin with. But even if you believe the costs of QE2 were worth its purported benefits, you would be hard pressed to now say that still more liquidity, or more fuel, is called for given the more than $1.5 trillion in excess bank reserves and the Read more…
The Coming Rout QE3
There’s a scenario that could play out between May and September in which commodities (including my beloved silver) and the stock and bond markets could all sell off between 20% and 40%. The trigger will be the cessation of QE II and a multi-month pause before QE III.
This is a reversal in my thinking from the outright inflationary ‘buy with both hands’ bent that I have held for the past two years. Even though it’s quite a speculative analysis at this early stage, it is a possibility that we must consider.
Important note: This is a short-term scenario that stems from my trading days, so if you are a long-term holder of a core position in gold and silver, as am I, nothing has changed in my extended outlook for these metals. The fiscal and monetary path we are on has a very high likelihood of failure over the coming decade, and I see nothing that shakes that view.
But over the next 3-6 months, I have a few specific concerns.
It’s time to build on the idea I planted in the Insider article entitled Blame the Victim (February 28, 2011) where I speculated on the idea that the Fed might be forced to end its Read more…
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