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China to raise interest rates within month – report
The Hong Kong-datelined story did not identify its sources, citing the sensitivity of the information.
It also cited the economists and bankers as saying China was unlikely to let the yuan currency appreciate faster anytime soon as a way to fight inflation.
Analysts polled by Reuters saw two more rate rises by the end of the first half.
The median forecast of economists polled by Reuters is for inflation to reach its fastest in more than two years at an annual pace of 5.3 percent for January.
Cheap food may be a thing of the past
U.S. grain prices should stay unrelentingly high this year, according to a Reuters poll, the latest sign that the era of cheap food has come to an end.
U.S. corn, soybeans and wheat prices — which surged by as much has 50 percent last year and hit their highest levels since mid-2008 — will dip by at most 5 percent by the end of 2011, according to the poll of 16 analysts.
The forecasts suggest no quick relief for nations bedeviled by record high food costs that have stoked civil unrest. It means any extreme weather event in a grains-producing part of the world could send prices soaring further.
The expectations may also strengthen importers’ resolve to build bigger inventories after a year in which stocks of corn and soybeans in the United States — the world’s top exporter — dwindled to their lowest level in decades.
Story: Global food chain stretched to the limit Read more…
When and How Gold Will Begin its Bubble
The bull market in Gold is in its 12th year (globally it began in 1999) but has yet to exhibit any “bubble-like” conditions. In fact, we still see many people referring to this bull market as “the Gold trade,” as if its an aberration that needs to be reversed or corrected. That aside, we know that Gold is under-owned as an asset class. The very well respected BCA Research estimates that globally only 1% is allocated to Gold and that fits with some of the charts that I’ve shown in the past.
Institutional accumulation began in 2009 (e.g. Paulson, Einhorn) and we know that phase lasts at least a few years before a bull market gives birth to a bubble.
Part of the problem for Gold has been the solid performance of other asset classes through most of the Gold bull market. Stocks performed very well from 2003 to 2007 and from 2009-2010. Commodities performed well from 2001-2002 and in the first half of 2008. If stocks are doing well or if commodities such as oil and agriculture are performing well, it detracts from Gold. Gold performs its absolute best when the other asset classes underperform or don’t perform too well.
Let me explain the conditions and setup that will facilitate the birth of a bubble and Gold going mainstream. Read more…
Could China Be Forced To Bring A New Global Recession by 2015?
By Dian L. Chu, EconForecast
Bloomberg on Sunday, Jan. 30 cited a 28-page report–The Financial Crisis of 2015: An Avoidable History (pdf file below)–by Barrie Wilkinson, a London-based partner at consulting firm Oliver Wyman.
The report describes a scenario–spanned 2013 to 2015–when Western QE-induced inflation brings down China, creating a debt crisis in the commodity sector–inclusive of resource-dependent countries as well as commodity producers–which eventually plunge the world into another recession, and a new world order by 2015.
“…the dramatic rises in commodities prices resulting from loose Western monetary policies eventually caused rampant inflation in China. China was forced to raise interest rates and appreciate its currency to bring inflation under control.”
Well, I think we are pretty much there already.
“Once the Chinese economy began to slow, investors quickly realized Read more…
Thousands protest in Jordan for third week
Suha Philip Ma’ayeh
AMMAN // For the third consecutive on Friday, Jordanians poured into the streets after noon prayers to protest against soaring prices and call for a change in government.
The Islamist led opposition, professional associations and leftist activists marched yesterday from Al Huesseini Mosque to the capital’s center. They held banners that read “Corruption and normalisation are two faces of the same coin,” called for a “national unity government” and called for the prime minister Samir Rifai to step down.
Police estimated 3,500 people took part in the protest, one of several demonstrations held this month despite two recent government aid packages to mitigate the impact of soaring prices. The measures included a 20-dinar (Dh100) monthly salary increase for state workers and in pension, while the previous aid package increased subsidies for some commodities, including fuel and food staples such as rice and sugar.
Another 2,500 people also took to the streets in six other cities across the country after the noon prayers yesterday. Those protests also called for Mr Rifai’s ouster. Read more…
Economist: United States Worse Off than Greece
Kurt Nimmo
Infowars.com
Dr. Laurence Kotlikoff is an economics professor at Boston University. He says the Treasury and the government are fudging the national debt numbers. Kotlikoff says the United States is bankrupt and we don’t even know it.
During his SOTU address, Obama called for a freeze on discretionary spending. He called for a five-year freeze on non-mandatory domestic spending, a proposal he estimated would save $400 billion over the next decade.
He said entitlements like Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security will need to be reformed without mentioning specifics. In other words, the government is thinking about cutting these programs to the bone. Boomers will be eating dog food after their pensions are stolen and the entitlement Ponzi scheme breaks down. Read more…
World needs $100 trillion more credit, says World Economic Forum
The world’s expected economic growth will have to be supported by an extra $100 trillion (£63 trillion) in credit over the next decade, according to the World Economic Forum.
This doubling of existing credit levels could be achieved without increasing the risk of a major crisis, said the report from the WEF ahead of its high-profile annual meeting in Davos.
But researchers warned that leaders must be wary of new credit “hotspots”, where too much lending takes place, as the world emerges from a financial catastrophe blamed in large part “to the failure of the financial system to detect and constrain” these areas of unsustainable debt.
“Pockets of credit grew rapidly to excess – and brought the entire financial system to the brink of collapse,” said the report, written in conjunction with consulting firm McKinsey. “Yet, credit is the lifeblood of the economy, and much more of it will be needed to sustain the recovery and enable the developing world to achieve its growth potential.”
The global credit stock has already doubled in recent years, from $57 trillion to $109 trillion between 2000 and 2009, according to the report.
The WEF said the continued demand for credit could be met “responsibly, sustainably – and with fewer crises”. However, it cautioned that to achieve this goal, financial institutions, regulators, and policy makers need more robust indicators of unsustainable lending, risk, and credit shortages.
Gold is to China as paper currency is to US
Bill Bonner
We’d still like to see a deep decline in the gold price. Too many people are getting onto gold. Most of them have no idea of what they are doing. Like readers of MONEY magazine, they’re buying the yellow metal as a speculation. Most likely they’re going to lose money. Almost everyone who speculates on gold loses money. Don’t ask us why. It’s just one of those Iron Laws of investing.
Gold goes up for 10 years straight. Speculators notice. They jump on board. And then the train runs off the tracks.
That’s just the way it works.
Besides, remember that this Great Correction is not over yet…not by a long shot. It has barely begun to correct the excesses of the Bubble Era. A quarter of all homeowners are said to be underwater on their mortgages – that still needs to be sorted out. And the whole financial industry – with the collusion of the Fed – is sitting on trillions of dollars’ worth of mortgage backed securities, pretending that they are good credits.
There are still major bankruptcies ahead…and deflation of assets prices. And in all the sturm and drang of it, the price of gold could go down too.
But if you’re acquiring gold, you have some powerful competition. As nations become rich and powerful, they accumulate gold. Those that are getting weak and poor give it up. Here’s The Financial Times with the latest news: Read more…
What kinds of societies create wealth? What kinds destroy it?
There are some activities that are positive sum activities. That is, they are productive. They increase the total of real wealth in a society.
Bill Bonner
There are other activities that are zero sum activities…or even negative sum activities. War, for example. Excess legal wrangling. Paperwork. Too much time spent in schools. Too much support for the unemployed, the malingerers and the loafers. These things decrease the total of real wealth in a society.
Sometimes people are bright, honest and hardworking. Sometimes they are lazy, shiftless and cunning. They always prefer to get wealth and status by the easiest means possible. In some societies, the best way is by working hard. In others, it is by being clever…becoming a lawyer…a banker…or a government hack.
A new society…or a fresh economy (such as one that has just been flattened by war or hyperinflation)…or a new model for an economy…is generally a wealth-creating society.
A free society is also generally a wealth creating society. People do what they want. If they want wealth, they are free to create it.
But as societies (or economies) age, they become Read more…
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