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How the Climate Is Breeding More Black Swans
Here’s a definition that should send chills down the spines of investors: “An unpredictable or unforeseen event, typically one with extreme consequences.” This sum
s up a black swan event. Nassim Nicholas Taleb mainstreamed the concept through his writings. His points became particularly topical through his book, The Black Swan, around the time of the financial crisis — a major, destructive event that many people found unexpected and, beforehand, maybe even impossible.
There’s a similar risk brewing on the horizon. Climate change could be the next black swan event that causes an ugly ripple effect through our lives and economies. The majority of current investment strategy comes up short on modeling, even considering that this as a legitimate concern, at least for our lifetimes.
History’s lessons
Here’s a lesson in extreme irony: The term originated when people didn’t believe black swans existed at all. Because no one had ever seen one, it certainly looked as if Read more…
Weather Extremes & Global Warming — The Connection
Seasonal Jun-Jul-Aug 2010 sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies relative to 1951–70. Record high SSTs were recorded in the locations and at the times indicated with record flooding nearby.
Curious about the connection between global warming and extreme weather? You ought to be. And who better to learn about this from than National Center for Atmospheric Research senior scientist Kevin E. Trenberth?
Here’s a new article by Trenberth published in the journal Climatic Change under a Creative Commons-Attribution license (PDF here, HTML here) — thanks to Climate Progress for the find and share: Read more…
Melting Arctic link to cold, snowy UK winters
This winter brought snow as far south as GreeceThe progressive shrinking of Arctic sea ice is bringing colder, snowier winters to the UK and other areas of Europe, North America and China, a study shows.
As global temperatures have risen, the area of Arctic Ocean covered by ice in summer and autumn has been falling.
Writing in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), a US/China-based team show this affects the jet stream and brings cold, snowy weather.
Whether conditions will get colder still as ice melts further is unclear.
There was a marked deterioration in ice cover between the summers of 2006 and 2007, which still holds the record for the lowest extent on record; and it has not recovered since.
The current winter is roughly tracking the graph of 2007, according to the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).
The new study is not the first to propose a causal relationship between Read more…
Above-normal number of tornadoes expected in 2012
Following a near-record number of tornadoes in 2011, an active severe weather season with above-normal tornadoes is expected in 2012.
There were 1,709 tornadoes in 2011, falling short of the record 1,817 tornadoes set in 2004. In comparison, the average number of tornadoes over the past decade is around 1,300.
Last year ranks as the fourth most deadly tornado year ever recorded in the United States.
In 2011, there was a very strong La Niña, a phenomenon where the sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific around the equator are below normal. As a result, there was a very strong jet stream, which is a key ingredient for severe weather.
Often in a La Niña year, the “Tornado Alley” shifts to the east, spanning the Gulf States, including Mississippi and Alabama, and the Ohio and Tennessee valleys.
During the extremely active severe weather season of 2011, many tornadoes touched down east of Read more…
Rare Snows in North Africa
Snow made a rare appearance in Algiers, the capital city of Algeria.
Cold air associated with a storm system diving into northern Africa provided for some decent accumulations of snow in the north African country.
According to Accuweather Meteorologist Eric Wanenchak, most reports say the last time Algiers saw this kind of accumulation was at least seven years ago in 2005.
He said Algiers must fight a combination of limiting factors in order to see snowfall. First, the city is near the Mediterranean Sea, which is still quite warm, currently in the low 50s.
Youtube user mohsal57 shows snow falling on the tropical trees in Algiers, Algeria.
Second, they are at Read more…
2011 Was A Year of Weather Extremes, With More to Come
The global average temperature in 2011 was 14.52 degrees Celsius (58.14 degrees Fahrenheit). According to NASA scientists, this was the ninth warmest year in 132 years of recordkeeping, despite the cooling influence of the La Niña atmospheric and oceanic circulation pattern and relatively low solar irradiance. Since the 1970s, each subsequent decade has gotten hotter — and 9 of the 10 hottest years on record have occurred in the twenty-first century.
Each year’s average temperature is determined by a number of factors, including solar activity and the status of the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon. But heat-trapping gases that have accumulated in the atmosphere, largely from the burning of fossil fuels, have become a dominant force, pushing the Earth’s climate out of its normal range. The planet is now close to 0.8 degrees Celsius warmer than it was a century ago. Hidden within Read more…
1/26/2012 — USDA confirms WARM LATITUDES move north = New PLANTS will grow = Russia North Pole
FINALLY ! It all ties together.
Strange animal deaths starting last year…. global uptick in earthquakes…. weather patterns shifting / changing noticeably …. compasses showing variances …. airports changing their runway alignment …. sun rising early in Greenland …. record snow over Russia/Alaska …. north pole shifting …. gravity and moon anomalies…
And now this latest story — the USDA confirms that Read more…
Summer coolest in nearly 20 years
This summer is set to be Britain’s coolest in nearly 20 years, the Met Office said.
The mean temperature for summer 2011 has been 13.63C (56.53F), close to 1993’s 13.39C (56.1F), provisional figures for June 1 to August 29 show.
Last summer’s mean temperature was more than 1C higher than this summer so far at 14.65C (58.37F).
But while the summer has been wetter than last year’s it has been considerably drier than 2007, 2008 and 2009, the forecaster said.
Figures show this summer has seen 267.7mm of rainfall so far, compared with Read more…
New York breaks city’s rainfall record with nearly eight inches soaking city
Staten Island was hit hard by the record rainfall on Sunday.
New York broke an all-time record for a one-day rainfall Sunday as up to 8 inches of water soaked the city, snarling trains and flooding roadways.
By 9 p.m., 7.7 inches of rain had fallen at Kennedy Airport.
It was the most recorded there in a single day since the National Weather Service began keeping records 116 years ago.
The heavy tropical rain is expected to continue Monday, and a flash flood warning is in effect until 9 p.m.
The normal rainfall for all of August in New York is 4 inches – which means the city was socked with two months worth of rain in a single day.
“This is what you would expect in a major hurricane,” said Steve Wistar, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather.
Kennedy Airport’s old one-day rainfall record, 6.3 inches, set on June 30, 1984, fell by noon.
Central Park, where the city’s official rainfall total is recorded, saw Read more…
Broward tornado hit up to 90 mph wind speed, weather service says
A twister that tore through a mile of Tamarac and North Lauderdale on Tuesday hit a maximum wind speed of 90 mph, the National Weather Service said on Wednesday.
No serious injuries were reported, most of the damage was Read more…
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