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IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end: China’s economy will surpass the U.S. in 2016
For the first time, the international organization has set a date for the moment when the “Age of America” will end and the U.S. economy will be overtaken by that of China.
The Obama deficit tour
The Wall Street Journal editorial page’s Steve Moore critiques the president’s speeches attacking Republican budget plans.
And it’s a lot closer than you may think.
According to the latest IMF official forecasts, China’s economy will surpass that of America in real terms in 2016 — just five years from now.
Put that in your calendar.
It provides a painful context for the budget wrangling taking place in Washington, D.C., right now. It raises enormous questions about what the international security system is going to look like in just a handful of years. And it casts a deepening cloud over both the U.S. dollar and the giant Treasury market, which have been propped up for decades by their privileged status as the liabilities of the world’s hegemonic power.
According to the IMF forecast, whomever is elected U.S. president next year — Obama? Mitt Romney? Donald Trump? — will be the last to preside over the world’s largest economy.
Most people aren’t prepared for this. They aren’t even aware it’s that close. Listen to experts of various stripes, and they will tell you Read more…
Gold and silver: through the roof
All that glitters is gold, and silver… at least that’s what the market thinks. The price of spot silver jumped 5 per cent to hit $49 a troy ounce, and gold hit a record high for the seventh consecutive session, at $1,517.71 a troy ounce in early trading on Monday. Meanwhile, the US dollar fell to a three-year low.
According to reports from Reuters, much of the interest looks to be coming from India and China.
“Everyone is buying… there is stop-loss buying, as well as a good buying interest from China,” Reuters reported, citing a trader in Hong Kong.
Gold has been at all time highs since the start of the year when oil prices jumped and geo-political concerns in the Middle East began to shake confidence in a global economic recovery. According to the FT’s Jack Farchy, investor holdings in gold through exchange traded funds have risen 1.38 per cent in April this year – the strongest monthly gain since August 2010.
But it’s not just gold that has generated interest in recent months. Holdings in iShares Silver trust, the Read more…
U.S. Worried by Potential Chinese CW Tech Sales to Iran
A leaked diplomatic cable indicates that the U.S. State Department believed in 2009 that a Chinese firm was providing Iran with equipment that could be used in producing chemical weapons agents, Haaretz reported on Thursday (see GSN, Feb. 3).
“We have new information indicating that Zibo Chemet transferred technology for the production of glass-lined reactor equipment to Iranian customers, significantly enhancing Iran’s ability to produce indigenously chemical equipment suitable for a chemical warfare program,” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton stated in a message to the U.S. Embassy in Beijing.
The Obama administration’s top diplomat requested that the embassy inform the Chinese government of the situation and press Beijing to put an end to the exports, according to the July 24, 2009, dispatch obtained by the transparency group WikiLeaks.
Zibo Chemet is suspected of providing sensitive technology to Iran, North Korea and Syria, and was sanctioned by Washington in 2007, according to the cable. Beijing subsequently took unspecified “limited punitive action” against the firm, it states.
Nonetheless, Zibo Chemet “recently transferred Australia Group-controlled technology to manufacture glass-lined chemical reactor vessels to the Iranian entity Shimi Azarjaam. This glass-lining plant is located in Shokoohieh Industrial Park, Qum,” Clinton stated.
Such reactor vessels are produced to withstand chemicals they hold, which can include precursors for nerve agents, according to Haaretz.
China is not a member of the Australia Group, a multinational organization that seeks to prevent exports of materials intended for use in biological or chemical weapons programs.
The United States and other nations have accused Tehran of developing chemical-warfare capabilities. Iran, whose troops and citizens were subjected to chemical weapons attacks during the nation’s 1980s war with Iraq, denies operating such a program (Yossi Melman, Haaretz, April 21).
Oil Crisis Just Got Real: Sinopec (Read China) Cuts Off Oil Exports
As if a dollar in freefall was not enough, surging oil is about to hit the turbo boost, decimating what is left of the US (and global) consumer. Xinhua, via Energy Daily, brings this stunner: ” Chinese oil giant Sinopec has stopped exporting oil products to maintain domestic supplies amid disruption concerns caused by Middle East unrest and Japan’s earthquake, a report said Wednesday. The state-run Xinhua news agency did not say how long the suspension would last but it reported that the firm had said it also would take steps to step up output “to maintain domestic market supplies of refined oil products”. Oh but don’t worry, those good Saudi folks are seeing a massive drop in demand… for their Kool aid perhaps. “Sinopec would ensure supplies met the “basic needs” of the southern Chinese special regions of Hong Kong and Macao, but they also should expect an unspecified drop in supply, Xinhua quoted an unnamed company official as saying.” Now… does anyone remember the 1970s? Read more…
Pictures of China’s new submarines, tanks, stealth planes and railgun development
Here is a picture that compares the Chinese J20, the US F22 and the Russian T50 stealth fighter planes from the side and from the top
PBOC’s Zhou Urges Cutting China’s $3 Trillion of Foreign-Exchange Reserves
Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People’s Bank of China. Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg
China needs to reduce its foreign- exchange reserves as they exceed the level the nation requires, central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said.
The management and diversification of the holdings, which topped $3 trillion at the end of March, should be improved, Zhou said after a speech at Tsinghua University in Beijing late yesterday. The rapid accumulation is putting pressure on the sterilization operations of the People’s Bank of China, he said.
The nation’s foreign-exchange reserves climbed $197 billion in the first quarter, reflecting global imbalances that Group of 20 finance ministers agreed last week to address through deeper scrutiny of their economic policies. China’s surging holdings are fueling inflation that accelerated last month to the highest in 32 months, prompting the government to boost banks’ reserve requirements this week for the fourth time this year.
“Foreign-exchange reserves have exceeded the reasonable levels that we actually need,” Zhou said. “The rapid increase in reserves may have led to excessive liquidity and has exerted significant sterilization pressure. If the government doesn’t strike the right balance with its policies, the build-up could cause big risks,” he said, without elaborating.
The world’s second-biggest economy grew 9.7 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, faster than economists had forecast, and consumer prices climbed Read more…
Gold Price, Silver Price As Well As Silver Dollar Values Will Profit From World Mishaps!
I am sure it will most likely to take really a few weeks or even months to obtain the complete impact from the crisis in Japan. The initial surge in volatility will most likely pave the way for particular possibilities in precious metals and beyond. Any impetus coming from a renewed interest in commodities as the nation rebuilds will bring whatever trading is not boosted by fears from the total score of the disaster. It may not occur right away, but the world’s third biggest economy will restore itself like a phoenix and till then there’s feasible in these markets. Maybe not an improve in jewelry buying or something that may be deemed a frivolity, but investment option demand and provide creating in Read more…Prepare for the Next Conflict: Water Wars
Every minute, 15 children die from drinking dirty water. Every time you eat a hamburger, you consume 2400 liters of the planet’s fresh water resources — that is the amount of water needed to produce one hamburger. Today poor people are dying from lack of water, while rich people are consuming enormous amounts of water. This water paradox illustrates that we are currently looking at a global water conflict in the making.
We are terrifyingly fast consuming one of the most important and perishable resources of the planet — our water. Global water use has tripled over the last 50 years. The World Bank reports that 80 countries now have water shortages with more than 2.8 billion people living in areas of high water stress. This is expected to rise to 3.9 billion — more than half of Read more…
Is this how Eve spoke? Every human language evolved from ‘single prehistoric African mother tongue’
Every language in the world – from English to Mandarin – evolved from a prehistoric ‘mother tongue’ first spoken in Africa tens of thousands of years ago, a new study reveals.
After analysing more than 500 languages, Dr Quentin Atkinson found compelling evidence that they can be traced back to a long-forgotten dialect spoken by our Stone Age ancestors.
The findings don’t just pinpoint the origin of language to Africa – they also show that speech evolved at least 100,000 years ago, far earlier than previously thought.
Scientists have found that every language can be traced back to a Read more…World Bank: Food prices have entered the ‘danger zone’
Robert Zoellick, World Bank president, said food prices are at “a tipping point”, having risen 36pc in the last year to levels close to their 2008 peak. The rising cost of food has been much more dramatic in low-income countries, pushing 44m people into poverty since June last year.
Another 10pc rise in food prices would push 10m into extreme poverty, defined as an effective income of less than $1.25 a day. Already, the world’s poor number 1.2bn.
Mr Zoellick said he saw no short term reversal in the damaging effect of food inflation, which is felt much more in the developing world as packaging and distribution accounts for a far larger proportion of the cost in the advanced economies.
Asked if he thought prices would remain high for a year, Mr Zoellick said: “The general trend lines are ones where we are in a danger zone… because prices have already gone up and stocks are relatively low.”
Rising prices have been driven by the changing diet of the ballooning middle classes in the emerging markets. “There is a demand change going on, with the higher incomes in developing countries. People will eat more meat products, for example, that will use more grain.
“I am not suggesting that the improved diets in the developing world are the source of the problem but it means it takes longer to Read more…
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