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Currencies dropping like stones
The markets have not yet thought about it, but the biggest threat to the Euro is not Greece, Ireland or Portugal, but the dangers posed by the fourth largest economy in Europe, which is also the third largest in the Eurozone, that of Italy. Italy is passing austerity measures but the measures may not be enough. The problem that the Euro faces is that there is little central control over the EU economy, control that exists affects states within Europe that have not adopted the Euro, as well as those that have.
Eleven years ago when the merits of the Euro were debated I argued against it. I was not fondly wishing to hold on to the pound sterling for sentimental reasons. I felt that there was a Read more…
Dollar keeps sinking while gold tops $1,500
Silver, Gold up 49% 6% respectively on the year while Dollar keeps tumbling
The dollar is getting trashed again, driving a key index of the U.S. currency’s value to its lowest level in more than two years.
And as the greenback slumps further, gold and silver — the hard-money alternatives to paper currencies — are hitting new highs. Gold closed above $1,500 an ounce for the first time.
The DXY index, which measures the dollar’s value against six other major currencies (including the euro, the yen and the Swiss franc), slid to 74.10 on Thursday, down 0.4% from Wednesday and the lowest since August 2008.
Year-to-date the DXY index (charted at left) is down 6.2%.
“It’s a ‘sell the dollar, buy everything else’ market,” said Win Thin, a currency strategist at Brown Bros. Harriman in New York.
The euro hit a new 16-month high of $1.454 on Thursday, up from $1.451 on Wednesday. The dollar also hit a record low of 6.52 Chinese yuan, down from 6.56 yuan a month ago, as the Chinese government allows its currency to steadily strengthen.
The buck’s slump this year has been fueled in large part by the widening gulf between U.S. interest rates and Read more…
U.S. Dollar at 15 Month Low
The dollar fell to a 15-month low against a basket of currencies on Tuesday, with sterling among the biggest gainers after a rise in UK inflation increased the chances of a UK interest rate hike sooner rather than later.
Relative interest rate expectations also lifted the euro to its highest against the dollar this year, but a reported options barrier at $1.4250 and a sharp sell-off in euro/sterling following the UK inflation data capped its gains.
Consumer prices in the UK last month rose by 4.4 percent, a 28-month high, and more than double the Bank of England’s mid-point target of 2 percent. Money markets are now fully pricing in a quarter point rate hike from the Bank of England in July, versus August before the data.
The yen, meanwhile, was little changed on the day in a tight Read more…
IMF Calls for Dollar Alternative
The IMF is trying to move the world away from the U.S. dollar and towards a global currency once again. In a new report entitled “Enhancing International Monetary Stability—A Role for the SDR“, the IMF details the “problems” with having the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency of the globe and the IMF discusses the potential for a larger role for SDRs (Special Drawing Rights). But the IMF certainly does not view SDRs as the “final solution” to global currency problems. Rather, the IMF considers SDRs to be a transitional phase between what we have now and a new world currency. In this newly published report, the IMF makes this point very clearly: “In the even longer run, if there were political willingness to do so, these securities could constitute an embryo of global currency.” Yes, you read that correctly. The SDR is supposed to be “an embryo” from which a global currency will one day develop. So what about the U.S. dollar and other national currencies? Well, they would just end up fading away.
CNN clearly understands what the IMF is trying to accomplish with this new report. The following is how CNN’s recent story about the new IMF report begins….
“The International Monetary Fund issued a report Thursday on a possible replacement for the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.”
That is exactly what the IMF intends to do.
They intend to have SDRs replace the U.S. dollar as the world reserve currency.
So exactly what are SDRs?
Well, “SDR” is short for Special Drawing Rights. It is a synthetic currency unit that is made up of Read more…
Which Of The Currencies Of The World Is Going To Crash First?
Last year was an absolutely fascinating time for world currency markets. The yen, the dollar and the euro all took their turns in the spotlight. Each experienced wild swings at various times, but the overall theme that we saw was that faith in paper currencies is dying. The biggest reason for this is the horrific sovereign debt crisis that has swept the globe. The United States, Japan and a whole host of European nations are all drowning in debt. The U.S. and Japan are both steamrolling toward insolvency, and several European nations would have already defaulted on their debts if they had not been bailed out. So which of the major currencies of the world is going to crash first? Will one (or more) of the big currencies fall before the end of 2011? Once one major currency collapses will the rest start to fall like dominoes? The truth is that the world has never seen a sovereign debt crisis of this magnitude in all of human history. Almost the entire globe is drowning in a sea of red ink and it has brought us right to the brink of financial disaster.
So which of the currencies of the world is going to be the first to come crashing down? Well, let’s take a quick look at the yen, the euro and the dollar…. Read more…
Either America Or China Will Crash In 2011
Andy Xie’s latest sees the liquidity war getting worse in 2011.
America will continue to pump the financial system with liquidity via tax cuts and quantitative easing. China will keep the yuan cheap and avoid clamping down on inflation.
The tense equilibrium can’t last for long, as either sovereign debt or inflation gets too heavy to bear. Whoever lasts longer, wins.
The most likely candidates to trigger the next global crisis are the U.S.’s sovereign debt or China’s inflation. When one goes down first, the other can prolong its economic cycle. China may have won the last race. To win the next one, China must tackle its inflation problem, which is ultimately a political and structural issue, in 2011. If China does, the U.S. will again be the cause for the next global crisis. China will suffer from declining exports but benefit from lower oil prices.
On the other hand, if China has a hard landing, the U.S.’s trade deficit can drop dramatically, maybe by 50 percent, due to lower import prices. It would boost the dollar’s value and bring down the U.S.’s treasury yield. The U.S. can have lower finacing costs and lower expenditures. The combination allows the U.S. to enjoy a period of good growth.
Xie notes that China may have the advantage here. While America has committed to a liquidity hose, Beijing still has the opportunity to crack down on inflation:
China’s inflation problem stems from the country’s rapid monetary growth in the past decade. That is due to the need to finance a vast property sector, which is, in turn, to generate fiscal revenues for local governments to finance their vast expenditure programs. Unless something is done to limit local government expenditure, China’s inflation problem is likely to get out of control…
There are two ways to limit local government expenditure. One is to cut their funding source. Their main revenue sources are land sales, property taxes, and bank loans. The last source is drying up a bit, as banks are saddled with high exposure to the sector already and are trying to decrease it. This change isn’t biting yet because local governments haven’t spent all the money they borrowed before.
China needs America to consume their goods. This is the only way to keep its 1.3 billion people working and prevent protests and cause social instability. America has lost it manufacturing bases. They have only the printing press to print fit currency. America needs cheap imports from China to keep the illusion of high standard of living that they are used too.
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