CRISISBOOM

usatoday

Federal forecasters Thursday called for an “above-normal” hurricane season this year. They predict anywhere from 12-18 named storms to form in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Earl spins in the Atlantic Ocean last September. Although it didn’t make landfall, Earl came the closest to hitting the USA of any 2010 hurricane.

Of those named storms, six to 10 should become hurricanes, including three to six “major” hurricanes, with wind speeds above 111 mph.

Tropical storms are given a name when wind speeds reach 39 mph. They are upgraded to hurricane status when their sustained winds reach 74 mph. An average Atlantic hurricane season sees 11 named storms, including six hurricanes; two become major hurricanes.

Forecasters do not predict the number of storms that will make landfall.

Climate factors in this outlook include unusually warm Atlantic Ocean water and temperatures two degrees above average, reports Gerry Bell, lead seasonal forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center. Additionally, the impacts of the La Nina climate pattern, such as reduced wind shear, are expected to continue into the hurricane season.

“In addition to multiple climate factors, seasonal climate models also indicate an above-normal season is likely, and even suggest we could see activity comparable to some of the active seasons since 1995,” Bell said.

Since 1995, Bell says the Atlantic is in an era of increased hurricane activity. There are consistently favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions for storm formation.

Thursday’s NOAA forecast is similar to earlier predictions by researchers at Colorado State University and the AccuWeather commercial weather service. The Colorado State team, led by Read more…